Setting a new milestone, domestic air passenger traffic surpassed 5 lakh for the first time in a single day on November 17th, showcasing robust travel demand during the festive and wedding seasons.
Indian Aviation Sets New Benchmark
November 2024 has emerged as the pinnacle month for domestic aviation in India. The total daily passenger figures reported by the Ministry of Civil Aviation on its website indicate that the month witnessed 1,40,23,778 passengers aboard 91,728 flights until November 29, 2024. This surpasses the previous record set in December 2023, when 1,37,97,352 passengers traveled on 91,529 domestic flights. Earlier this year, May also approached this figure with 1,37,95,301 passengers on 93,551 domestic flights.
This achievement is notable as the industry recorded over 5 lakh passengers daily for the first time. On Sunday, November 17, 2024, the domestic sector transported 5,05,412 passengers. This record was once again broken the following Sunday when 5,05,611 passengers took to the skies. The month maintained an average of 4,83,578 passengers each day, marking substantial growth compared to October, which averaged 4,46,816 domestic travelers.
Both of the previous records occurred in months with 31 days, unlike November, where these figures were attained in just 30 days, reflecting exceptionally strong demand and occupancy rates. The regulator will release the summary for the month, along with load factors and On-Time Performance, around mid-month, which may reconcile the data and could result in slight adjustments to the figures. The current numbers are 8.65% higher than the daily average recorded in December 2023, which was the previous peak.
Capacity is Expanding
October witnessed an average of 3,153 domestic flights each day, while November saw a slight increase to 3,165, which is merely about 12 additional flights daily. This gradual rise in capacity results from IndiGo’s new aircraft deliveries and the resumption of SpiceJet’s operations, while Akasa, Air India, and Air India Express have not introduced any additional aircraft.
With the peak holiday season on the horizon, this added capacity will contribute to stabilizing fares, although they are expected to remain elevated. Both Akasa Air and Air India Express have yet to incorporate the anticipated capacity, both of which are affected by the Boeing strike that has delayed aircraft deliveries.
Positive Trends for Airlines
IndiGo reported a loss of ₹987 crore in the quarter from July to September, marking the end of seven consecutive profitable quarters. During the announcement, the airline highlighted a return to normalcy in demand and yields. However, the past month has proven to be anything but a return to normalcy regarding either demand or yields.
Passengers have voiced concerns regarding high fares even for shorter routes, yet the strong demand has prevented this from dissuading them, with occupancy rates for major airlines exceeding 90% on nearly all days in November.
Following a relatively subdued October, which coincided with the Diwali holidays, airlines launched flash sales. This strategy appears to have bolstered passenger loads, enabling airlines to optimize pricing.
What has significantly contributed is the wedding season, which many have termed as exceptionally fruitful this year. This will aid in spending and travel during what was otherwise a subdued beginning to the quarter.
Several airlines, including major players and regional carriers, will lament the lack of extra capacity during this peak time.
November actually got off to a sluggish start. The month commenced with fewer than 400,000 passengers being flown on Diwali day, a typically low figure. Traffic began to increase as the month advanced, featuring two days with over 500,000 passenger traffic, a first in India’s aviation history.
All attention is now directed towards December to determine if it will outshine the November figures. As the year concludes, it is poised to achieve the highest-ever annual traffic, exceeding the previous best recorded in 2023.
The upcoming year is brimming with aircraft deliveries for all airlines and notable milestones, such as the introduction of the XLR by IndiGo. Can the momentum be maintained? It likely will due to the increase in capacity.
The critical inquiry is whether the profit margins can be upheld. Historically, excessive capacity additions have resulted in fierce competition. To prevent a recurrence of this, all airlines must exhibit considerable discipline.
25,000 Flights a Week
In October, the aviation regulatory body DGCA announced that Indian airlines will operate 25,007 flights weekly to and from 124 airports in the winter schedule that commenced on October 27.
This flight count represents a three percent increase from the 24,275 departures per week from 125 airports in the existing summer schedule.
When compared to the winter schedule of 2023, the number of flights has risen by 5.37 percent.
The winter schedule spans from October 27, 2024, to March 29, 2025.
More demand for cargo aircraft in India
India’s freighter fleet has expanded threefold to 18 over the last six years, and Boeing anticipates that Indian carriers will acquire more cargo aircraft to facilitate the growth of domestic e-commerce and exports.
In its world air cargo forecast published earlier this month, Boeing predicts a doubling of freight flows between South Asia and Europe, and a quadrupling of flows between South Asia and East Asia in the next two decades.
The domestic air cargo market in India, which currently constitutes less than one percent of global cargo traffic, is projected to grow fourfold over the next twenty years, driven by e-commerce sales. “While still relatively modest in volume compared to established e-commerce markets like China, the US, or the EU, Indian e-commerce volumes are expanding more rapidly than nearly anywhere else, at over 25 percent annually,” Boeing noted in its forecast.
The aircraft manufacturer stated that India’s dedicated freighter fleet consists of a combination of Airbus and Boeing planes operated by Blue Dart, IndiGo, Pradhaan Air, Quikjet, and SpiceJet.
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